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buffalogal
1.25.11, 7:49 PM
Thoughts?

Best Picture Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone
No real surprises here. I was hoping "The Town" would make it in but I knew it would be unlikely. I'd have picked that instead of Black Swan or Inception, personally, but the Academy didn't agree! For me, I'd pick The Social Network all the way, though I liked most of the others.

Best Director
"Black Swan" Darren Aronofsky
"The Fighter" David O. Russell
"The King's Speech" Tom Hooper
"The Social Network" David Fincher
"True Grit" Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
I see a lot of people thought Christopher Nolan should have gotten a nod for Inception instead of the Coen brothers, but I think they got it right. True Grit, while a "remake," was stronger, IMO. I could have lived without Darren Aronofsky getting selected, but that movie is really all about the direction and Portman, so of course they'd nominate him. Fincher will win for The Social Network.

Best Actor
Javier Bardem in "Biutiful"
Jeff Bridges in "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg in "The Social Network"
Colin Firth in "The King's Speech"
James Franco in "127 Hours"
Surprised to see Bardem instead of Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine. Haven't seen Biutiful so I can't comment on him, but Blue Valentine had a ton of buzz. I think this is Colin Firth's year but I'd go with Jesse Eisenberg who was great in The Social Network.

Best Actress
Annette Bening in "The Kids Are All Right"
Nicole Kidman in "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence in "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman in "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams in "Blue Valentine"
No surprises here. I think Kidman and Lawrence have no shot, with Portman and Bening duking it out and Williams as the dark horse. Probably Portman's year for a "showier" role.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale in "The Fighter"
John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner in "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo in "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffrey Rush in "The King's Speech"
This was the only category where I screamed out due to a glaring omission ... Andrew Garfield for The Social Network!!! He was great in that movie and has gotten nominated for pretty much all the other awards. This category is Bale's to lose, but Garfield gave one of the best performances this year and should have made it in over Ruffalo who was the weakest link in that movie, IMO (and I normally love him!) So glad to see John Hawkes nominated, too.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech"
Melissa Leo in "The Fighter"
Hailee Steinfeld in "True Grit"
Jacki Weaver in "Animal Kingdom"
No surprises here. Leo and Steinfeld will be the leading contenders. I would have said Leo had the edge a few weeks ago, but people are coming on strong for Steinfeld now. I think they were both great.

Best Animated Feature Film
"How to Train Your Dragon" Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
"The Illusionist" Sylvain Chomet
"Toy Story 3" Lee Unkrich
Toy Story 3 will win but How to Train Your Dragon was my personal fave. Loved, loved, loved it.

Best Original Screenplay
"Another Year" Written by Mike Leigh
"The Fighter" Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
"Inception" Written by Christopher Nolan
"The Kids Are All Right" Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
"The King's Speech" Screenplay by David Seidler
I think they might give this to Inception so it gets something. It was definitely ambitious.

Best Adapted Screenplay
"127 Hours" Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
"The Social Network" Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
"Toy Story 3" Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
"True Grit" Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"Winter's Bone" Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
If The Social Network doesn't win this, I'd be shocked. The screenplay is amazing.

mtj
1.25.11, 8:27 PM
I haven't seen any of the nominated movies.
The King's Speech is the only one that sounds good to me.